For some reason, I have been on a numbers kick recently and several numbers that I have heard moved me to investigate them. One such number was the odds of a single amino acid coming to be on its own, or “evolving”. For those that don’t recall what an amino acid is, amino acids are the basic building blocks of organic materials such as proteins. I don’t recall the number specifically, but it was something along the lines of one chance in 1×1040,000. While this number is impressive, an amino acid is not by itself life. So what are the odds of life coming to be, or “evolving”. This number is even more impressive: 1 chance in 1×1010123.
Here are some additional numbers I found interesting:
- Accepted mathematical value of statistical impossibility: 1×1050 *Note: this number is minuscule compared to the two numbers above.
- Number of atoms believed to exist in the entire universe: 1×1078 *Note: this number is minuscule compared to the two numbers above.
These numbers are so big, getting our heads wrapped around what their written form looks like is difficult, much less comprehending the number itself. So in an attempt to understand just how large these numbers are, I spent some time trying to write them down (with the assistance of a computer, of course).
To help with this exercise, let’s start small….really small. Take the number one hundred thousand (100,000). Expressed in the format given above, this number is 1×105. So far so good, right? So how about one hundred million (100,000,000, or 1×108). While easy enough to write on paper, comprehending this many “somethings” is a bit more difficult, except perhaps for those in Washington but that’s a different issue. Moving on….
The number ten billion can be written as 10,000,000,000, or 1×1010. If 101 = 10, then it is also accurate to represent ten billion as 1×10101. Using this notation, 1×10102 = 1×10100 (102 = 100) which becomes 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000
and 1×10103 becomes
10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000.
See why I needed a computer? Notice how much larger each number is when compared to the previous number. Each subsequent number is 10 of the previous number. Also notice that we are not anywhere close to either of the two numbers given at the beginning of this waste-of-time, but we have exceeded the numbers for mathematical impossibility and the number of atoms in the universe.
To simply write 1×10105, or 1×10100,000, using Microsoft Word with a ten point Times New Roman font on a document with default page margins, requires 22 pages of 0′s, and 1×10106, or 1×101,000,000, requires 220 pages. Gotta love copy and paste.
I successfully wrote out 1×105,000,000 which took 1098 pages, but Word crashed when I tried to duplicate that and write out, 1×1010,000,000, or 1×10107. Using the pattern that is becoming evident, however, I can confidently deduce that it would have been around 2200 pages. Continuing this pattern, it would take 22,000 pages to write 1×10108, 220,000 pages to write 1×10109, 2,200,000 pages to write 1×101010, 22,000,000 pages to write 1×101011, and 220,000,000 pages to write 1×101012. Remember, each successive number is 10 of the previous number.
So, to simply write down the number of the chance of evolution producing even the smallest of life forms, it would require 10,000,000 X’s each containing 100,000,000 Y’s each containing 100,000,000 Z’s each containing 100,000,000 universes each containing 100,000,000 galaxies each containing 100,000,000 solar systems each containing 100,000,000 planets each containing 100,000,000 countries each containing 100,000,000 states each containing 100,000,000 cities each containing 100,000,000 libraries each containing 100,000,000 collections each containing 100,000,000 volumes each containing 100,000,000 books each containing 220,000,000 pages to contain all the 0′s.
Put another way, Roger Penrose, the British mathematician who calculated this probability, comments:
Even if we were to write a 0 on each separate proton and on each separate neutron in the entire universe- and we could throw in all the other particles for good measure- we should fall far short of writing down the figure needed.
The chance of evolution producing life is one chance in that number. So say what you want, but evolution is NOT responsible for the origin of life. That leaves only one real alternative. And scientists don’t like it.
If you would like some additional reading on the subject, just Google “evolution probability” and you can read to your heart’s content. Here are a few that came up tops in my search:
http://www.christiananswers.net/q-eden/origin-of-life.html
http://www.pilgrimtours.com/creation/mathematics.htm
http://ankerberg.com/Articles/_PDFArchives/science/SC1W0302.pdf
http://www.icr.org/article/evolution-biologically-impossible/
http://www.faizani.com/news/news_2003/math_impossibility.html
